Every year, acceptance rates at prestigious universities and colleges decline. The top 50 most selective schools saw acceptance rates drop from 35.9% in 2006 to 4.39% last year. Furthermore, it appears that these trends are only getting faster. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
But not everyone is following this trend. The Common App reports that 73% of its 914 member institutions accept over half of all applications. This represents an increase from 69% during the 2014–2015 academic year.
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The fact that fewer students have been enrolling in college since 2010 is the most bizarre aspect of this trend. How can low acceptance rates and declining enrolment coexist? To comprehend the phenomenon, we looked closely at the numbers. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
Top Schools Are Getting More Applicants
The driving factor behind declining acceptance rates at top schools is the growth in the number of applicants there. Top schools, which include major research universities and private liberal arts schools, are seeing a massive growth in the size of their applicant pool. While the number of people applying to college remains steady, the number of people submitting applications to many top schools is growing. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
The ease of applying to selective schools may be part of the story. According to research from the Common App, an application used by over 1000 member universities, the average number of schools a person applied to through Common App jumped 8% between 2019 and 2020. This was the highest individual growth year, but the trend towards students applying to more schools has been a growing trend for years. In 2013-2014, students submitted 4.63 college applications on average. In 2021-2022 that number grew to 6.22. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
Not every school is seeing these huge gains. Nearly three out of four colleges still admit more than half of all students who apply.
However, the most selective schools are seeing more applications, and many of the applications are coming from top students. Top students (those with strong academic performance and high standardised test scores) are applying to more schools than typical high school graduates. That means top schools don’t have to accept such a high proportion of students to fill their incoming classes. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
Test-Optional Changed Everything
‘Test-optional’ refers to a trend where an applicant can decide whether to submit a standardised test score with their application. Historically, most schools required students to submit either an ACT or SAT score. Today, fewer schools require students to jump through that hoop. Most schools that have dropped the standardised test score cite improvements to the diversity of their applicant pool as the driving factor behind their decision. Cynics point out that dropping the test score requirement drives up the number of people applying, which gives schools the appearance of being more selective. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
Whatever the reason, test-optional has undoubtedly led to more students applying to schools without a test score. In particular, the most selective universities are seeing more applications than ever before.
While some universities took a test-optional stance as early as the early 2000s, most schools were forced to become test-optional during the 2020-2021 school year due to the COVID-19 pandemic shutting down testing sites. Since that time, many schools have kept their test-optional status, and students are submitting test scores far less frequently than they did before the pandemic. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
Some schools have taken the test-optional trend a step further. For example, the California higher education system no longer accepts test scores as part of its application process. Top students looking to attend these schools (which include some of the most prestigious public universities) can no longer bank on test scores to help them gain admission.
However, this trend is slowly starting to shift back, with many of the top 50 schools bringing back admissions tests.
Top Schools Are Using Waitlists To Drive Acceptance Rates Down
Every college wants to increase its yield, which is the proportion of admitted students who ultimately attend the school. Early decision, where admitted students must decide by December whether to attend the school. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
Top schools are also making use of waitlists to keep acceptance rates artificially low. Students put on a waitlist are in a “limbo” status between accepted and rejected. Those who commit to other colleges will request their removal from the waitlist, while those who remain interested will stay on the list.
Colleges fill up their incoming classes with “waitlisted” applicants if too few people who were originally accepted decide to attend. The National Association for College Admissions Counseling (NACAC) reports that 43% of schools use waitlists, with 20% of waitlisted students ultimately gaining admission to the institution. However, the waitlist process offers an outsized benefit to selective schools that can fill up most of their spots while maintaining a super-low acceptance rate. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
If they need a few more students to fill a class, they can make target offers to qualified students who weren’t originally accepted.
Will Rates Keep Falling In 2026?
Given the increasingly competitive landscape, students who want to attend a top school feel the need to apply to more schools to gain admittance to at least one selective school. At the same time, top schools are getting inundated with more top candidates than ever before. This vicious cycle could continue to drive applications up and acceptance rates down. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
But the story at the top schools isn’t the story everywhere. NACAC reports that overall admittance rates are up from their 2012 lows, and most schools are fighting over fewer students who will ultimately enrol in college.
The Bottom Line
If you’re a current high school student, you probably don’t need to worry that no school will accept you. Even average students can gain acceptance to less selective schools, community colleges, and some selective schools. If you have your heart set on a selective school, you need to be willing to play the numbers game. Without a systematic change to the college admissions process, you can’t be assured of admittance to selective schools even if you’re a top student. That leaves you applying to half a dozen or more schools in the hopes that one will let you in. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping
But top students should remember that entry to a selective school isn’t a guarantee of financial wellness. You may want to consider less selective schools that offer more generous scholarships and grants to help you cover the cost of your undergraduate education. Why College Acceptance Rates Are Dropping